Thursday, May 5, 2011

Let the arguments begin!

Dayton Moore has called up Eric Hosmer, replacing Kila Ka'aihue.

Alright, here we go...I think the move is premature.

**braces for the hit**

HOWEVER, I can see it being done in a few more weeks if Hosmer had continued to destroy opposing pitching at Omaha.

**braces for the hit**

Let's look at the different points of contention:
  • Too early for Hosmer: This is something I generally agree with, and why I think the move is premature. Hosmer's had just north of 300 plate appearances at the AA and AAA levels. That's half a season, and that's not a lot. That being said, running an 1.100 OPS is a good way to prove that perhaps he's ready now. Still, I don't see what the harm would've been in waiting another 3-4 weeks, and seeing if Kila could do enough to bring back something in a trade, or slightly enhance a trade package over the Summer.
  • Too soon to give up on Kila: Yes, it is...but that's not to say that Kila just might not be very good. But this is the problem...Kila is going back to Omaha, where Clint Robinson is tearing it up. Let's say Kila does what he's done enough of before, and tears it up down there, too. Great...now you have two 1B/DH quasi-prospects who haven't shown anything at the major league level, and thus aren't worth much of anything in a trade. Not saying it's the wrong move for this current Royals team, but it is the wrong move from an organizational standpoint.
  • Bring up Hosmer, the Royals are contending and he can help: This goes back to the first bullet point -- we don't know squat about what Hosmer will do at the major league level, and of course, we should be skeptical of the Royals chances to contend this year. So if this is the thinking behind bringing up Hosmer, it's faulted.
  • Argh, Hosmer's service clock is starting early: To me, this thinking is generally correct, in line with my prior point. But while this is an important point, focusing on it isn't something I'm going to do. I'll get into more detail on why this shouldn't be the main focus of not bringing Hosmer up in a second.

Alright, so...while again, I think the move was premature, and starting Hosmer's service clock early wasn't really necessary, I'm not worried about it.

2018 is very far from now -- which is the extra year the Royals would have Hosmer under their control if they could only wait until next year to bring him up. Again, it's very far away. There will be so many questions about that year...when it arrives...that I think worrying about it too much a silly thing to do.
  1. Will Hosmer be good in the majors, as well? We just don't know. Should he prove a bust, of course, 2018 means absolutely nothing.
  2. If Hosmer is indeed good, then they'll have to sign him earlier, meaning he'll eat up a chunk of their 2018 money. To this, I ask...2018 money spent on what? Do we know the Royals are going to be good that year? Do we know if Hosmer, who is a Scott Boras client, will even be able to be signed by this organization? Do we know what the other bevy of prospects the Royals have will do, and what kinds of contracts they'll need and how much money of the 2018 Royals payroll they'll take up? Do we know what the Royals team needs will be in 2018, and what the free agent market will look like? Are you dizzy yet? Are you tired of me asking you questions that you can't answer? Shouldn't I be tired of asking them by now? When will it stop?
  3. Well, if they can't sign him, at least they would get 2018 for free, then: If he's that good? No they won't, because if he's that good and they can't sign him (likely...again, Scott Boras), then they'll want to trade him earlier than 2018 anyway to get max value in return. And part of that max return value they can look for could be...wait for it...a 1B prospect to replace Hosmer.
Now, to answer to all of point #2's questions...well, the ones prior to me going off on a tangent, anyway...are no, we do not know. So in that vein, we simply cannot be too concerned with the disposition of one player for one particular year -- a year that is 6 1/2 years from now.

If Hosmer's service time/contract status seriously impairs this organization's ability to contend in 2018, then so be it. But with the literal ton of variables between now and then, I don't think it's a stretch to think that it won't.

Let's remind ourselves of two things -- the Royals now have quite a number of prospects, and I would hope by then that Dayton Moore can stumble his way onto another 1B/DH prospect by then. Prospects as highly touted as Hosmer do not grow on trees, but that being said, 1B/DH hitting prospects are among the easiest ones to find. In six years, I would hope Moore can reload at that spot.

So, in summary, I would not have brought Hosmer up were I in the shoes of Dayton Moore. Of course, if I were in his shoes, I'd probably be thinking, "These aren't my shoes" or something along those lines...but I digress.

I would not have brought Hosmer up, but I'm not Dayton Moore, and the Royals are not my team. Since Moore has indeed made this move, I may as well stuff my reservations into a bag, and get excited about seeing this guy play!

GO BLUE!

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