Well, lookee there

While it would be much easier to notice if the Royals were still in the race a few people may have missed that the Cleveland Indians have run into the same brick wall the Royals already have. They ran into it later, and they ran into it after they had given themselves quite a cushion, but run into it they have.

I wondered if the Indians were going to have some troubles leading up to the AL East-heavy schedule they were due to embark on just prior to the Memorial Day weekend; a schedule that outside of the AL East included teams like the Texas Rangers and the Cincinnati Reds. I knew they wouldn't continue to win at the .600+ clip they were on at that point, but I was thinking they would get through it somewhere close to a .500 record, rather than the 8-13 record they've put up (and they started it off w/ four wins in a row, too).

What's probably surprising to me more than the record is that they've really played worse than that -- they're 4-1 in 1-run games during that period, and in the other 16 games during this stretch they've been outscored by 45 runs.

I suppose it's that special brand of pessimism that allows many of us Royals fans to see the Royals and Indians get off to good starts, and simultaneously find every reason the Royals won't continue to do well while being easily convinced of why the Indians were about as good as they looked.

The real reason the Royals are out of it while only 7 games back isn't really the Indians -- it's the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox. Are the Indians better than the Royals? Probably, but with recent events I don't have a ton of problem seeing the Royals and the Indians ending up having around the same record, even if I doubt it. What I don't see, however, is the Royals ending up with a record above .500 and having a better record than the Indians, Tigers, and White Sox.

So how many wins will the Royals end up with? Their current record (28-36) -- which is, by the way, the same record as their Pythagorean record suggest they should be at -- projects out to 71 wins; a few less then I was thinking when they started off hot, as I was guessing 74 to 76. A couple of realities about their situation are:

• The Royals have already played a home-heavy schedule, and about 60% of their remaining games are on the road.
• The starters are already the worst in the league and really can't get appreciably worse
• They don't really have any hitters hitting appreciably above expectations, but they do have a few hitting below
• Joakim Soria has personally slashed the Royals tires on the way to having a better record

Taking those factors in and thinking a bit, I think 71 wins is fine and doable. The roster will likely change some more as a few pitchers come off the DL and the Royals get busy in the trade market, but by the time that's all said and done the Royals' fate will be set in stone.

71 wins. Not lots, and not what many of us hoped for, but it's a sight better than 62 wins, which would mean the Royals would have "met expectations" for a 100-loss season.

And as for the Indians? While it's easy to say they're falling back to Earth and now the teams most assumed would contend for the title will now take over, I'm not so sure...the Indians won quite a bit for a two-month period of time, not just a month like the Royals did. They won't continue to lose like this, and also, the Tigers and the White Sox really shouldn't inspire that much awe and confidence. They, like every team in the AL (and MLB, for that matter), are very flawed.

Moves made at/before the trading deadline could mean a lot more this season than many others, since so many teams are finding ways to hang around and stay at least semi-relevant in their respective division races.

I'm going to project this:

1. Detroit Tigers: 91-71
2. Cleveland Indians: 87-75
3. Chicago White Sox: 84-78
4. Kansas City Royals: 72-90
5. Minnesota Twins: 70-92

If I'm right, someone buy me a beer, damnit.