Monday, April 25, 2011

"Leading" - Off

Please, Ned Yost.

Yost should start Mike Aviles at 2B instead of Chris Getz against the Cleveland Indians in what is a pretty important series for the Royals. This would set them up to trot out their best offensive lineup, and hopefully is something that Yost would stick with for more than a single game.

I like Getz and all, and it seems he's shown an ability to draw a walk, which is a good thing for a leadoff man. He also seems to be a decent threat to steal a base, another good thing for a leadoff man.

But he has two glaring issues: 1) drawing walks at a decent rate is good, but if he's only capable of hitting .250 or less, it's going to leave his OBP lower than it should be for a leadoff man, and 2) he's shown absolutely no ability to hit for any power (.065 isoP) in 740 plate apperances (so, essentially one full season and change).

Not saying a leadoff hitter has to have good power, but when you're in a position to garner the most plate appearances of everyone on the team over the course of a season (which everyday leadoff men pretty much do), then having the ability to throw in some doubles and triples is a necessity to help the team get some easier scores from time to time.

And remember, leadoff men are only leading off some of the time -- they're also going to have situations where they can drive runs in. And if there's a man on 1st with 2 outs with the #1 spot in the order coming to bat, it'd be nice to have someone that has a more than a 6.5% chance to get an extra-base hit.

I'm not expecting Ricky Henderson, here, but if you're not able to maintain a .100 isoP, you're not someone that should be at or near the team lead in plate appearances, you're someone that should be batting 8th or 9th...if you play at all.

Getz does, of course, get a bit of leeway for his solid defense, but not enough to make up for running an anemic .610 OPS. Of course, Alcides Escobar is even worse, hard as that is to believe, but he doesn't have as ready of a backup and his defense is superlative (although if he keeps running a .500 OPS, the value of that defense is almost eliminated).

In any case, here's to hoping this isn't just for one game -- Getz has enough ML plate appearances to show he's probably a poor hitter, and the 85 plate appearance debut this season has seemed to confirm that.

As to the question of who should lead off for the Royals if not Getz, well, I'm pretty sure we can all acknowledge the Royals simply don't have anyone who fits that bill particularly well (and many teams don't). Given that, they should simply put the best hitter they can in that spot, which would currently point to Aviles.

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